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Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
coffeeman 10-06-2008, 1:33 PM | Post #2572266 |  19 Replies
0  

could you all help suggest bond funds to help weather bear market storm in my ira account.  I currently own

csrsx

umbix

fdivx

flpsx

goldx

lsbrx

nosgx

fcntx

 

Thanks!! 

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Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
Super_Snark 10-06-2008, 2:33 PM | Post #2572318
2  

Don't you realize that its much too late to take a defensive position with bonds? The time to get into quality bonds was a year ago, not in the middle of a financial meltdown. If you buy government bonds now you will pay a premium for them. Corporates are too dicey now, because our definitions of "investment grade" have gone awry. And I guess you have seen what happens when an aggressive bond fund like LSBRX puts a priority on returns instead of capital preservation. Bur, if you sell stocks now, you will have locked in your losses.  Assuming you do have cash, you might want to sit on it a for awhile, if you are skittish. If you are bullish over the long haul, you might want to add to your stocks now that they are really cheap (as I'm doing).

Lesson learned here: you buy bonds as a defensive position before you even expect the stock market to tank. You buy bonds for capital appreciation before the Fed begins lowering interest rates. But selling stocks now to take a position in a conservative bond fund is the worst thing you could do now. And that advice probably doesn't make you feel better now, but at least you'll know better next time.

Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
Mr. Purrington 10-06-2008, 2:39 PM | Post #2572322
0  

I agree with the poster above.

Sorry,

Mr. P.

 

Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
fredP 10-06-2008, 6:38 PM | Post #2572514
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 I know how you feel and the last thing you need at this point is a lecture. You apparently want to reduce your equity exposure and you may feel the current money market yields are to low.

I'm no expert but I would suggest sticking to quality  (U.S. Treasuries) and stay short term.

Good Luck

Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
coffeeman 10-07-2008, 6:57 PM | Post #2573168
1  

Yes, what these two above did not realize was that I am not looking for a lecture or a 101 on bond buying.   I understand the benfit of diversifing with bonds.  Right now, I am trying to determine if I want to change my asset allocations toward a more bond heavy portfolio to limit my losses.  The market is only going to keep going down in my opinion for a while.  I do not normally look to time the market.  But I want to add more bonds to my 'folio to flatten out the losses.  Bonds suggestions are what I am asking for here.  Opinions are very welcome!

Thanks! 

Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
TallyMan 10-07-2008, 7:38 PM | Post #2573187
0  

Coffeeman,

Here are some bond funds for you to chew-on to see if they fit into your plan, your goals, risk level, etc:

Vanguard Inflation-Protected Secs (VIPSX), recently not as hot cause folks don't seem to be worrying as much about inflation NOW, but historically usually a decent diversifier and if inflation bubbles up in a year or two or three or ... This should be in a ROTH and unfortunately, I don't have room in my VG ROTH right now, so I am increasing my and my wife's holdings in kindred tax sheltered mutual funds.

Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade (VFSTX) has been hit lately and folks may disagree on prospects. Recently, I have been incrementally adding a little to my holdings in this fund.

Muni funds have taken some recent hits, but I am guessing that they could have a comeback in a year or two or three or .... If federal tax rates increase, could get really nice bump in NAVs.  If federal tax law is changed so they are no longer tax exempt, uh oh. Vanguard has some solid looking funds (VWSTX, VMLTX, and perhaps VWITX) that generally have high quality short-to-intermediate term holdings. VG's TE MM currently has a nice yield but that could quickly change. Of course, the higher your federal marginal tax bracket, the better the tax advantage. I am now incrementally buying a bit a more (DCA'ing) in these funds, a little more than I had originally planned.

However, given your original post, these may all be too risky.

Anyways, as my Mom use to say, "you pay your money and take your chances,"
Best of luck to us all,
Steve

 

Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
capecod 10-07-2008, 8:16 PM | Post #2573198
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You might take a look at FGMNX or an alternative GNMA fund.  Credit should be bulletproof and yield about 5% in what is likely to be a very long period of low (high credit quality) rates and returns.  Also consider 96% real-AAA closed-end fund MGF, yielding over 8% and (by my calculations) currently earing it thanks to discount.

Regards, Dick

Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
RettW 10-07-2008, 8:17 PM | Post #2573199
1  

VIPSX has not been performing as well as ACITX.   These inflation-adjusted bonds may be poor in a deflationary environment; maybe that explains their terrible month.  The inflation-adjusted bonds suddenly and violently diverged from VFITX a few weeks ago.  VSGBX may be better and less volatile over the next few months.

Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
Limoman 10-07-2008, 9:32 PM | Post #2573216
0  

IMO?

csrsx  NO

UMBIX  NO

fdivx  No

flpsx  No

goldx No

lsbrx  NO

nosgx No

fcntx  Big No

why?

1. I just look at their past 10 yr Apy's

2. Most don't beat Top Balanced Funds so why bother?

3. Your taking More risk fo rthe same Rtns as Balanced Funds

4. What Balanced funds?

FPACX,OAKBX,PRFPX , WMRIX ( can get thru Fido-IRA account) or buy WMMRX and pay the load.

Bonds?

Stick to the Traditional one's.. Van guards , Fido's

Fido > FIBIX

VG's > VFITX,

EM > PREMX

LSBRX has burned his Bridges.. isn't worth the Downside risk anymore..Only good in a Bull Market, poor in a Bear ( ie: Yr 2000-2002) and of course this Yr stinks

and unless you Need to make More than a 8-10% APY on your Retirement $?

Go with a conservative Port Mix of 40/60 to 50/50 max. with at least 80% and if you  have to play with Equities? Use the other 20% or With $ you can afford to loose 50% of at anytime.. ( Adding bond Funds to those Bal.Funds to get that % mix.)

FWIW..a 40/60 Port of Indexes did about 11% apy past 8 calender yrs while the other higher equity Mix ports Did only about 8-9.5% and for 10 yrs? Only Did 1 % Less than higher Equity ports.. Is it worth the Downside risk for a 1% difference?

My Port of Bal. and Bond Funds is -6.76% YTD as of todays Close ( 10/08/08 )

Warning! > DYOR..DoYourOwnResearch.. Don't invest just on my or anyone else's opinons! I'm just a 60 yr old retired Blue Collar guy that is guessing like everyone else and I have just been lucky these past 8 yrs since being in these funds with my Retirement $ with ave. about a 13.5% apy. I compare my choices to Index Ports of VWELX, VWINX and other Index Ports by Pro's, like Fund Advice/PaulMerriman @ FundAdvice.com - Home , PAUL B. FARRELL's @ Lazy Portfolio's ,  Scott Burns @ AssetBuilder Inc. - Retirement Investment Advisor , Annex Wealth Management along with using  Lipper Funds Research | SmartMoney.com  &  Bal. Fund Compare (Fund Compare) | SmartMoney.com ,&  Bob Brinker's Land of Critical Mass :plus 25 other Sites and it's  STILL a Guessing game.! Thus I put 80% of my $ into Balanced Funds of FPACX,OAKBX,PRPFX & WMRIX and just let them decide for me, since they have proven to do a better job of it  than I ever have..,   maybe you will do better, butt I doubt it.. Why? " The Odds R Against you"   Read this> 11 reasons passive investors let Wall Street steal their money - MarketWatch   

> 90% of us Armatures Haven't Got a Chance at this Investing Game on our own ...;0>)
Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
Al Wahl 10-10-2008, 8:23 PM | Post #2575316
0  

That’s a good question, Coffeeman, and one which currently interests me.  I don’t have any advice for you, but I will share my thoughts for a similar decision I will make in similar circumstances.  I have some cash I would put to work.  I would rather buy bonds than CDs, and I do not feel the need limit my consideration to government-issues (even in these perilous times).  I have narrowed my alternatives to T. Rowe Price Spectrum Income, RPSIX, and Fidelity Strategic Income, FSICX—both categorized by Morningstar as multisector bond funds.  RPSIX is a fund-of–funds with a significant equity sleeve.  FSICX owns only debt instruments. 

 

I have had a position in RPSIX “forever” (well, longer than I can recall offhand), and over the years it has been both a reliable sea anchor and a dependable source of income.  But this market has persuaded me that my equity allocation is too high (among other things), and so I am considering FSICX for this investment. 

 

Otherwise, as much information as I have concerning these funds is available using Morningstar’s resources. 

 

Just my thinking for my investment decisions, of course.  Regards, Al. 

Re: Bond suggestions to help weather bear market storm
tar42 10-10-2008, 8:37 PM | Post #2575327