tar42:

Should I sell OAKBX and Wellesley now or wait for a second opintion?

 Would you heed the advice anyway?

 

Gergory, how many tims have you seen where the Diehards wish to cease this a type of Active vs Index debate. I'm just very surprised that someone like Mel would stoop to this, when he plays a very large role over on the Bobbleheads to control this type of behavior.

Just a short time ago Chin expressed his opinion by stating:

 >"I thought I understood most folks here wanted to get away from this managed -vs- indexing debate."<

Chin

Mel posted an online article which provided probabtive proof about how well (or, rather, poorly) active mgt. has fared.  You shouldn't shoot the messenger.

 

Thanks Mel. I've seen the WSJ artice before. These are my favorite quotes:

...money pouring into the ETF pushes the thinly traded stocks in the index much higher, while the kinds of stocks owned by fund managers don't move as much.

I have to wonder what kind of stocks the managers own? Are they from a different stock market?

 The takeaway is that market forces, which have nothing to do with stock-picking skills, can be affecting how your managers stack up against the indexes.

Sour grapes? This kind of gets to the heart of one of the indexer' s points. When aren't market forces in action? And if there are other forces, can managers identify in the present just what kinds of forces are acting on the market? I guess not.

The worst part of this is many investors on these boards have acted in shock that their manged funds went down. They believed the managers could some how take action to avoid losses. Of course, the investors sold out of their funds with great disappointment. Not the managers fault, but rather individual investors who don't bother to learn fundamentals.

 

Paul 

 

The point is that some on this forum constantly talk about how they trust their well-selected active managers to take care of them in down markets, and then when the rubber hits the road, they discover that it doesn't always happen that way.

The result is that many of them bail out, as some here have apparently done (they state that they're now keeping their powder dry, waiting for buying opportunities), when it becomes obvious to them that their "carefully-selected" active managers are actually losing money and not protecting them in down markets, as they've bragged previously that they would do.

I have no problem with the many intelligent active investors who know what they're doing and stick it out, since they realized in advance that they may do better or worse than the market, and that's a risk they were willing to take (and live with).

I just don't like to see what I consider to be ill-advised, non-factual and constantly-changing recommendations given to posters asking for help by posters whose constant posts show that they don't even have a handle on their own investments as they flitter around from one investing method/idea/scheme to another. This post is simply an attempt to bring counterbalance to those postings, showing the factual other side of the story.

Regards,

Mel

Gregory:

Mel posted an online article which provided probabtive proof about how well (or, rather, poorly) active mgt. has fared.  You shouldn't shoot the messenger.

 

Not too timely when you consider that nearly every Vanguard fund is suffering, regardless if they be active or passive. And Welleslely and and other non VG fund managed funds that many of us own have held up well. Sure some investors have lessen their holdings, but I don't know of many(myself included) that have dropped their funds and fled to the MM. I still hold all my funds, but have added some fine value investments in individual stocks as well as a ETF that I wouldn't be holding if the credit markets hadn't blown up. I have no problem in the slightest making minor changes in my portfolio when taking advatage of current conditions and outlooks that are apparent to those who follow the economy.

tar42:

Not too timely when you consider that nearly every Vanguard fund is suffering, regardless if they be active or passive. And Welleslely and and other non VG fund managed funds that many of us own have held up well. Sure some investors have lessen their holdings, but I don't know of many(myself included) that have dropped their funds and fled to the MM. I still hold all my funds, but have added some fine value investments in individual stocks as well as a ETF that I wouldn't be holding if the credit markets hadn't blown up. I have no problem in the slightest making minor changes in my portfolio when taking advatage of current conditions and outlooks that are apparent to those who follow the economy.

Hi Tim,

Once again, as always, you offer what you did with the advantage of hindsight 20/20. We could all be good at following the economy if we use hindsight 20/20 to post our trades here.  You always list the funds and stocks you trade after the fact. Then you come back with something like "I still hold all my funds," after stating earlier you sold some of your funds.

Each time you have posted your funds here, just as with stocks, it has been a different package. You hold all your funds from when yesterday? - 6 mos. ago? A year ago?

You seem confused. What about start one of the free portfolio trackers? It might help you to keep up with what you own. And Hey! --  you can show the world your abilities to predict the economy. No one will need to question, as you can list each of your trades as you make them.

If you are going to advise others, at least show the nerve to follow your own advice.

Chin

Learn fundementals?

LOL

If even the Best Pro's are doing poorly with their Recommended Ports? What does that tell you? and remember most advocate owing a 60/40 port... for while working and a 50/50 to a 40/60 port for Retirment..

Tells me? The Private Amature Hasn't got a Chance..

But , they are doing well, compared to what? The Misleading S&P500 Index?  why not to the LT Treasury Fund of VUSTX instead? = + 6.5% YTD. Or MMkt Funds = +4.3% ytd

Eg: Paul Merriman's> Fund Advice - 50/50 balanced Port of vG's Indexes is Dwn -10%

VWINX = Dwn -8% ( sure, it's doing Really well, isn't it vs VUSTX = 14.5% swing)

VWELX = Dwn  16% ( doing even better )

40/60 port = Dwn -6% ( whoppie do )

ALL 8 Lazymans Ports = Dwn ave. -11%

Seems to me, if these Pro's know so much? How come if they knew a bear was comming, they didn't :

A. Move all their $ into Bond funds? at least the first 3 qtrs..?

B. Or add Shorting some of the Equities using ETF's?

C. Or how come Vanguard doesn't also have some Short Funds?

Summary? There are no safe havens in anykind of Port of anykinds of Funds..Index or Otherwise..

About the only Bal. port at the top of  the Heap? > WMRIX but still Dwn the Least

at  Dwn - 2.56%

also, did anyone mention about Buying Short Funds back in late 07', let alone earlier this yr?

Such as Shorting ETF's , or Pro Funds Short funds or even Leutholds Grizzly fund?

They are new funds that allow one to Insure their Equity Funds, just like one does using Shorts with stocks..

They're Up ave of +50% YTD

And if you have added too your funds? Thinking they are a Value? Best be Right my friend.. But based upon all the Fraudulent Information floating around? Who's to say they were, what they say they were.. ? Going to trust the Arhtur Andersons/S&P/Moody's of the world?

you remember The Aruthru Anderson scandle, don't you?

and didn't Bond Funds beat the S&P 500 over the past 10 yrs? and even the past 8 yrs?

that ought to get the Bond vs Stock people Fighting again..! 

and there are a fee Active managed funds that did Move 80% into Bonds and Cash.. and are still in the black.. and 4 out of 14 Firms that managed peoples $ did so as well.. but it costs a Min. of $500k to $5 Million to get in the door.

and How's Pimco's Short Fund doing? Wonder if Bill Gross has most of his Money in it? But why not tell everyone else? Oh, It cost $5 million to get in..

Like our Bail out deal.. Protecting the Rich again it seems.. Just like the S&: bail out back in the 80's..

My retirement port is down -6% YTD of Mix of Bal. Funds and VG bonds..

Bah Humbug