Discuss

OppenheimerFunds' 529 Settlement Could Lead to Others

yogibearbull — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:16:01 GMT

AT:316994CMSArticle

Consumers Hold the Key

DClemons — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:15:00 GMT

AT:317029CMSArticle

Absolution for all obama voters today ONLY

Santa Cruz — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:44:26 GMT

ready to say sorry?

Geitner failures: he is asked to resign

georgef — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:09:16 GMT

But hey, if you cheat on your taxes, and someone wants you to resign for your failures, you just move on along.

http://www.thefoxnation.com/business/2009/11/19/shoot-out-geithner-asked-resign-slams-gop

Is Bogleheads.org the place to be now?

David C. — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:09:08 GMT

I remember years ago this forum had lots of activity.

Now not so much so.

Is Bogleheads now a better place to ask investing questions?

Anything but .01% (by Gross at PIMCO)

yogibearbull — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:05:33 GMT

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/Dec+Gross+Anything+but+01.htm

Predicting Which Funds will be Popular/Unpopular

oildog — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 19:37:27 GMT

If only we could make money off of predicting the popularity of mutual funds. A few years ago, several of us predicted that funds like PRPFX and YACKX would get a lot of attention once the lousy performance in the 1990s started falling off the 10 year charts. That's an extreme example, but it's something we should pay attention to because the 10 year charts will be moving through a beginning period that had a lot of volatility (1999-2002). Funds can go from looking spectacular to looking miserable (or vice versa) overnight. Those charts can exert a very powerful psychological bias on how you see funds. In my opinion, something like 90%+ of investors evaluate funds based on trailing performance alone, so we're in for some interesting times.

What is likely to happen in the coming years? Here are a few thoughts:

1. On the whole, value funds will become very popular for the next couple of years and then fall off the map. Many of these funds had lousy returns in the late 1990s as they didn't participate in the tech boom, but they had spectacular relative returns from 2000-2002. That means the 10 year returns will look great until about 2011-2012, and then they will start to look mediocre. This includes funds from families like Longleaf, Third Avenue, Yactkman, Oakmark, Fairholme, Dodge and Cox, etc.

2. "Aggressive" growth funds, large growth funds, and tech funds will start to get more attention as the brutal 2000-2002 bear market is wiped off the 10 year returns. Naive, young investors (and those with short memories) who do not remember the tech bubble will start to get attracted again to funds that promise aggressive growth.

3. Funds that have modest allocations to gold/precious metals will look like "steady eddie" funds and attract even more attention as the 10 year returns increasingly only include a time period during which gold has been in a bubble - e.g. PRPFX, SGENX. (this will only work if the bubble doesn't pop!)

Any other ideas?

Best,
Oildog

Mikes425

rascfw — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 04:31:54 GMT

Mike, this is in response to your Qs in my KISS article,
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?postId=2669127#page=1...

...I decided this year to drop my advisor and go it on my own. One of the reasons was what I considered unnecessary "bloat" in the number of funds advised to be held for sufficient diversification...
...I would welcome your thoughts on my shared portfolio which is a Taxable account and any thoughts on ways I might approach paring down the quantity of funds being used. I am a moderate investor at 50 y/o and looking about ten years out for a retirement scenario...
... I thought this would be a good time to look at not just putting that into higher-yielding, relatively 'safe-haven' positions, but also the simplification of my holdings to reduce total number of individual funds.
...your take on any obvious ways where I could look at consolidating for fewer holdings. My SEP-IRA is only a tiny percentage of assets vs the Taxable. All the more reason that I think expense reduction through a Simpler mix of fewer funds is a wiser approach.

Well, Mike, you first need to understand that I am not an advisor. All I can give you is my personal opinion.

Note --since you mention mutual funds, I assume that you are solely focused on MFs.

Why don't you first tell ME:

What are your goals? What do you perceive to be the ideal allocation in your porttfolio? [ie the diversification/weighting you want with stocks, bonds, REITs, commodities and/or precious metals] Then decide how you prefer to allocate domestic stock vs foreign and/or emerging market stock and domestic bond vs foreign and/or emerging market bond.
What kind of investor are you? Do you emphasize equity-income total-return or are you more growth-oriented? Once you know how you want to diversify your portfolio, you need to find investments YOU are comfortable with.
Once you've developed your ideal allocation and diversification you want for your portfolio and know the kinds of investments you want to own, then you should identify which criteria are important to you when choosing a MF... ER, distribution yield, M* risk/reward ratings, etc.

Here's a few more Qs for you, Mike:

You say you feel that there is unnecessary "bloat" in the number of funds you own in your taxable account. Sit back and think hard about this one... now that you have an idea about your idealized diversification and allocation, how many funds do YOU think you need? Look at the funds you own in your taxable account, list them by the various categories and then decide which areas might be over-emphasized. Once you identify the "bloat"ed areas, pick 'n choose which funds you want to keep.
This is a taxable account and I'm sure that you are aware that selling anything in it will be a taxable event. The best advice I've run across before is to sell when your investment in a fund is a long-term gain (lower tax level for LT capital gains) and you should try to balance gains from one MF with losses from another.
Don't be an all-or-nothing investor. You DON'T have to buy or sell everything all in one blow. If you have gains in your taxable account, try to balance out your LT and ST profits and losses in selling various MFs. If the net impact are taxable profits, decide if you're able to handle the taxes in one year. If not, spread out selling unwanted MFs over a few years.

unnecessary "bloat" ... paring down ... reduce ... consolidating
ALL of these terms indicate that you want to shrink your MFs down to fewer positions. You are in the driver's seat on this one, Mikes425. It is up to you to decide what funds to keep and which ones to sell --and how many MFs is a reasonable minimal number of MFs you have to own.

I am not a CPA, so please doublecheck possible tax consequences before you act.

Here's a few links showing 2 of my shared portfolios whose allocations might interest you... one is a 30/30/40 domestic stk/int'l stk/total-return bond mix and the other is my HO Contest portfolio for 2009:

30/30/40 KISS 1/4/99 http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/Portfolio
Sharing/SharedPortfolioSnapshot.aspx?q=32E8DF24F8FF4589 . HO Contest --Susan (2009 only) http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/Portfolio
Sharing/SharedPortfolioSnapshot.aspx?q=D4E1E746B3EB8181 . I hope the other posters here chip in with their advice, too. The more the merrier! I look forward to getting some feedback soon, Mike.

Regards,
Susan

Foreign Stock tax question?

brownsca — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:52:19 GMT

Does anyone know how investing with foreign exchanges differs from investing with local (in my case US) exchanges? Fidelity has recently made it possible to invest directly in foreign markets (i.e. one is no longer restricted to ADRs) and you can actually hold foreign currencies and settle trades in those currencies (I understand that ETrade has been doing this for some time as well).

Are capital gains and dividend taxes owed to the foreign government when trading in this manner? I happen to be interested in a few Canadian banks as dividend plays and I was considering investing in them directly (to gain exposure to the CDN which I understand the ADRs will not give me since they are dollar denominated).

Will the Canadian government be given my SSN and will they be sending me the equivalent of a 1099?

Thanks in advance.

Barry

New TRIGX manager/

McMontana — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:58:53 GMT

Anyone have any intelligence on Jonathan Matthews, the guy Fund Times says is taking over as manager of Trigx next July?

Hopefully this is a sign TRP is trying to improve this middling fund. TRP would have quite a bit more of my $ if they had a better-than-average moderate-value foreign fund!

Mac

Small Cap Funds...Index Or Not

Riprock — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 01:21:22 GMT

Hi,

With all the ambivalance towards small-cap funds lately, do you think a small cap growth index fund is a better choice than a concentrated stock pickers small cap growth fund. The two funds I am using as holdings are Janus Triton--JATTX...and Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index--VISGX. Is an index fund a good idea for the next 6-12 months? I have been very happy with both funds.

Thanks Riprock

Is that the death rattle of Exwax I hear ...

McMontana — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 21:03:55 GMT

... or am I overinterpreting? Manning & Napier World (Exwax) is growing like a waistline in a donut bakery, more than doubling from $2.2B to $4.6B in AUM in the last four months. The publicity must be driving it (from M* and I assume other sources).

What has been an essentially all-cap fund with 30-40% in mid-caps is piling on the assets, and the question in my mind is whether it will continue to be able to hold a reasonable number of stocks of a range of cap sizes like it's done in the past.

As one not-so-promising indicator, they've outsourced shareholder services, and in my account the transition has been pretty bad.

What say you, Exwax holders?

design a taxable retirement portofolio

Steven88 — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 22:22:46 GMT

I have posted in this forum recently asking for advice on my retirement portofolio in tax-deferred accounts. I am developing a plan for implementing some small changes. Thanks for your suggestions.

As I mentioned earlier, I plan to stop contributing to the company sponsored Deferred Compensention Plan (DCP) as it is not a qualified plan like 401K. Even though it offers great tax deferring advantages (and no annual contribution limits), I may still have the risk of losing this money in the unlikely event that company goes bankcrupt. I will continue to max out the 401k contributions.

For the taxable retirement account, I plan to contribute ~6000/month for the next 10-15 years. I already have some cash built up and a good amount of company stock (a large growth stock , like to keep it as they are grants with good dividents). I understand that some investments are bad choices for taxable accounts. I plan to have a 60/40 (equity/fixed income) allocation, perhaps with some tax-managed equity funds (US, & ex US), muni's and tax-exempt bond funds, etc. I really like Vanguard's tax managed funds, but they all have $10,000 min. Any suggestions? Funds with less min investment? portofolio considerations? Or should I continue to investment in the DCP plan and not worry about taxable account?

Thanks in advance for your help

Steve

New portfolio at Wellstrade

somesh — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:21:39 GMT

We are thinking of creating a new WT account with the following funds. Could anyone can suggest on our selection of the funds? This investment will be for at least 10 years. There willl not be any monthly addition to this account.

Name	Ticker	% Weight
Berwyn Income	BERIX	6.36
Fairholme	FAIRX	9.08
Fidelity New Markets Income	FNMIX	5.98
Fidelity Advisor Small Cap I	FSCIX	6.09
Homestead Short-Term Bond	HOSBX	5.14
Heartland Select Value	HRSVX	7.12
Oakmark Equity & Income I	OAKBX	9.22
Oppenheimer Developing Markets Y	ODVYX	7.89
Royce Pennsylvania Mutual Invmt	PENNX	6.46
T. Rowe Price Latin America	PRLAX	6.78
TCW Total Return Bond I	TGLMX	5.94
Scout International	UMBWX	7.91
Vanguard Dividend Growth	VDIGX	7.95
Yacktman Focused	YAFFX	8.06

Take SS @ age 62, vs 66?

Limoman — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:21:48 GMT

being an Andy Rooney ( 60 min TV show) Advocate..

Seems to me , taking your SS @ age 62 is a better Bet vs waiting longer..

That is, if My Figures are correct or even close..

1. Get $10k yr SS at Age 62 vs $13k yr at age 66..

2. If making the past 10 yrs apy of 9.16% on just bonds and Putting that $10k yr into your Roth or tax deferred account

3. I figured you'd have about $50k By age 66 saved up..

4. It keeps making that 9.16% apy and your Making an additional $4,580 yr on it + your $10k yr = $14,580 yr

5. And you have that $50k in your Greedy Little Hands for emergencies or to leave to the Wife to go to the Casino's with her Friends after your gone.. or to your Kids to go buy a New Car, Boom Box and Big Screen TV or Go take a trip to Disneyworld.. every yr on that $4,500 bucks it makes for them..

And think your going to live longer than the Ave of age 82 is a Pipe dream.. and most that do? End up in either a NHome their last couple of yrs or Being a shut in , in their own homes, having Hospice take care of you .

make sense?

and makes more sense to have our SS tax Indexed per Inflation and not this fixed rate business. I figure it should have been over Double what is is now after the past 28 yrs and not that 7.5% and the same for Employers..we have now..

But Wall Street and the Gov't doesn't want Us to have to save More and have Less to Spend.. We have less in our payroll cks to spend and support Wall Street and all those who make their Living from it and IRS would have Less Taxes Comming in and our Congress would have Less taxes to Spend.. or have to raise Payroll taxes and Other Taxes to fund their Spending habits..

I say, Take that SS owed you at age 62 and Invest it..Until you need it.. and don;t wait tilla ge 66 or later and buy that "it will be worth More" to you garbage if you wait longer..

What they are really afraid of? If we all took it at age 62 and since they Stoled so much of it in yrs past and it's all IOU's, SS would need a major Bail out and less $ for their Bailing out everyone else, including themselves...

advice on bond fund diversification

modenesi — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:02:26 GMT

I would love some advice from this forum on bond fund diversification.

I'm 62 and over the next 3 years plan to sell about $250,000 in stocks and buy bond funds to fix my AA.

My problem is I only own Vanguard funds and would like some bond fund diversification. I'm thinking 4 or 5 funds. I currently own VIPSX in a Roth plus VWINX AND VWELX. I also own a muni fund in the taxable account.

Suggestions are very welcome; thanks

T. Rowe Price panelists bullish on stocks, economy

lornadoone — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:06:59 GMT

The chief economics columnist for the Baltimore Sun provided this article:

TRP's annual investment symposium

Lorna

World Series of Poker on TV

Fundscan — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:07:53 GMT

Three decades ago, I used to participate in a local game on Saturdays called Texas Hold-Em.

And now, in retirement, I enjoy watching the World Series of Poker events on TV that features the now famous Texas Hold-Em game.

Recently I purchased a book for $9.95 at a large bookstore called, World Series of Poker Official Guidebook Collector's Edition. The book lists among other things the WSOP main event winners, WSOP money leaders, WSOP bracelet leader list, etc. At the back is a picture section of all the top pros along with place for each autograph. Great little book if you are interested in the WSOP events.

Does anyone know how much the 21 year old young man won at the 2009 WSOP main event?

How are the proposed Healthcare reform bills constitutional?

mwleach — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 18:59:43 GMT

Somebody please explain to me again where in the Constitution of the United States the federal government is given the power to require private citizens to purchase a commercial product (in this case, health insurance) merely by fact of being a resident in the United States? It sure is not in the commerce clause.

I am NOT here arguing the desirability or undesirability of mandatory health insurance as public policy. That is a worthy debate for a different thread. I am only asking where the Constitution permits the government to make such a requirement the law of the land? And, if this is the case is there anything - anything at all - the federal government could not require citizens to buy or do if it so chose?

George Will writes that the US Supreme Court,

" ... says the constitutional privacy right protects personal "autonomy" regarding "the most intimate and personal choices." The right was enunciated largely at the behest of liberals eager to establish abortion rights. Liberals may think, but the court has never held, that the privacy right protects only doctor-patient transactions pertaining to abortion.... If government cannot proscribe or even "unduly burden" -- the court's formulation -- access to abortion, how can government limit other important medical choices? ...

... When asked whether any compulsory insurance purchases are constitutional, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was genuinely astonished: "Are you serious? Are you serious?" In 1803, in Marbury v. Madison, Chief Justice John Marshall wrote, "The powers of the legislature are defined and limited; and that those limits may not be mistaken, or forgotten, the Constitution is written."

He was serious."

Full article here:

http://townhall.com/columnists/GeorgeWill/2009/11/19/fighting_a_coercion_clause?page=full&comments=true

MWL

TA -- 11/09 The Halloween Correction is Here

DeerIslander — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 21:46:50 GMT

A correction started the last week of October. (Did UH note the Full Moon on Halloween?) From a TA standpoint this decline was foretold since mid-September by declining breadth and declining momentum. The percentage of stocks that are Bullish on the NYSE has fallen from 88.6% the week of September 12 to approximately 75% Friday. $BPSPX

The market as measured by the percentage of stocks above their 200 ma was very overbought. In September the percentage of stocks above the 200 ma peaked at over 93%! That was a 3 year high! How overbought? At the Bear market bottom the percentage was 2% - 3%. So it is fair to say this Bull was very overbought by mid-September and has since pulled back to 86% -- by historical standards still overbought but less so. $NYA200R

The market has already corrected more than 5% from its most recent high in mid-October which meets the minimum correction definition of 5%. $SPX Corrections however come in two distinct flavors: Price with a price drop sufficient to bring buyers back in the market or Time when the market moves sideways and gains consolidate until fundamental value returns to the market.

So what are the indications on what shape this correction will take? Looking again at $SPX chart the cloud which projects forward 26 days indicates a somewhat sideways pattern. Further the $SPX has not broken the bottom of the cloud. While helpful this should not be considered definitive.

It is also positive that we have not seen a Hindenburg Omen. HERE Some elements of an omen are present but a minimum of two Omens are necessary to identify the risk of a crash. (10% or greater drop). Since 1987 there has not been a crash that was not proceeded by an Omen. That gives some comfort that we are not facing a severe decline -- yet.

There is support for the $SPX at 1020, 1000, 980 and 950 with 950 appearing the most formidable. On the other hand there is very strong resistance at 1060 and above that the recovery high of 1101 which will not be easy to close above barring a change in outlook. That says the odds of an immediate resumption of the Bull are low at present. As Capecod advised -- for now sell the rallies.

This sell off was triggered by a fear that quantitative easing and low interest rates may be coming to an end. There was also fear of a $US carry trade unwind. If true either would in all likelihood accelerate the correction. The FOMC meets on November 2 and 3 which could be a seminal event and dictate the markets next directional move.

So far DBV our proxy for the $US carry trade is quiet and showing no signs of a change of direction. Likewise the 10 year Treasury $TNX is still within its well established trading range and rates fell on Friday. Likewise short term rates as represented by the 3 months LIBOR are dormant and could win a limbo contest. $LIBOR3 However if there is substance to the reversal fears these indicators should show it here first though the change could be quite sudden.

So -- so far so good. No evidence of a Crash or retest of the Bear market low of 666. One final word of caution look at this chart of Norbert’s ratio on this cloud chart. $SPX:$VIX Note that this indicator has broken the cloud and is clearly Bearish. Looking to the left of this chart you will note this indicator did not break the cloud during the June-July 2009 sell off. That says whatever this correction is or will be there is every likelihood it will be the worst correction yet since the 2009 low. The June-July correction measured 9.1%. As of the Friday close we are at 6.1% and counting.

Bottomline: Caution is the watchword of the day. The trend is not currently our friend.

Add International Small cap to complement International Index fund?

David C. — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:00:16 GMT

Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index Fund Investor Shares (VFSVX):

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=1684&FundIntExt=INT

I found out recently that International Index fund is only Large caps.

What do you think about reducing International Index fund by 5% and putting it into International Small cap?

Note: VFSVX has some high fees!

.75% purchase fee, .75% redemption fee, .60% expense ratio

Duplicate thread-> Ignore

David C. — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 03:59:54 GMT

War Costs Dwarf Health care

Riprock — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:50:34 GMT

Hi,

Too bad Bushie the cheerleader wasted all that money in IRAQ and didn't get Osama. What a waste of money!

Riprock CPA

Dividend Income stock Excelon?

btrain26 — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 04:29:17 GMT

EXC

Any opinions about this M* 5 star stock with a 4.49 projected dividend.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08576498483

It looks early chartwise.....but it may be opportunistic. Red flags, anyone?

Time for active investors to rethink

tar42 — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 02:34:06 GMT

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pimcos-gross-others-say-to-go-more-defensive-2009-11-19