Contrarian Profits - All Comments

Re: A Safe 15% Per Year, No Sweat

Limoman — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 13:41:00 GMT

yep.. Only One problem? I've been thru these Bond deals over the yrs and they all come out of the woodwork during a Down and Bear market.. but disappear in a Bull Market..

Even if the they DO work out? For how long?

and If Corporate Bonds are such a Great Deal? how come Dozens of them have to pay such High Costs to sell them and how long can they make anykind of $ to be profitable..? Not for long me thinks..

And I'm quite sure "Corp. Bonds" Will pay these kinds of Rtns For the Next Yr or 2.. But what after that?

Did they not Get KILLED Last yr? Loosing -20-40%?

but, none the less.. Allocating 5-10% of your Bond $ Allocation into them won't hurt..

As for Vs stocks? This raises a red Flag with me when Bond people say this..as good as or better than stuff..

Stocks are a Pure Gamble, were as Bonds 'Should Be" far Less risk.. but many aren't..

And What if, stocks , that also Pay Divs, do a 03' and 04' Repeat? many Did over 100%! My Equity Funds? Did a Combined + 61% in 03' and +30% in 04'... and I'm certain others did as well or even better..and paid alot Less Taxes on those Profits vs Bonds..

If make say +15% on Bonds, paying -28% taxes? You net? about 11%, make that same 15% on your Stock or equities? You net 12.75% an at $100k per? sure pays for gas in my cars..and beats out IRS and the Politicans from blowing it on a ' Bridge to NoWhere"....LOL

Of course, maybe this is Co-incidental, of A Mr. McDonald comming out with this and it being St. Paddy's Week?

Go Post this Story over on the socialize.morningstar.com/.../ShowForum.aspx">Bond Squad and better yet the socialize.morningstar.com/.../AllConv.asp">Vanguard Diehards Discussion Board and http://www.bogleheads.org/">Bogleheads Investing Advice and Info

and see how they like it...

of course, Opportunities Don't fade away, the go to the next guy..

But I have "so many Ops" in the fire now? I'm tapped out and overwhelmed on what I'm going to have to pay in taxes if they all come in....

Now, this is just IMO from a 60 yr old Early Retired Below Average Inwestor...For the Below Average Inwestor. Opinions and Suggestion are just IMO and from my Limited Experience and you should always be Skeptical of other Posters O & S's and of course DYOR B4 gambling & betting your own $.. I've been using 3-4 Balance & Bonds Funds & using Flexible % allocations with Professional Advice, which has been Key to achieving my Goals. But, My Retirement Port did Loose -10% in 08' and Has done only about +9% apy these past 9 yrs..I hope you do better.

Re: A Safe 15% Per Year, No Sweat

NormanA61 — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 02:52:00 GMT

be careful, very careful unless you can purchase a large diversified bunch.

Corporates .... Enron, Worldcom and Lehman go to almost zero without notice ?? Wasn't Lehman A+/A.

I have a 11/1/09 CIT bond AA /A+ that I am holding my breath on everyday. I purchased this around 98 or 99 , way before the financial fallout.

It has been downgraded to a BBB+ It closed friday at 84 and at the low was around 65. That is a huge haircut for a measly 6.8% yield.

Just hoping it doesn't go belly up before Nov. 1

I purchased CD's around the same time (two years ago) that were 6% and was trying to "stretch" a little more yield with this Corp.

Be careful on Investment Grade Corps. 12-15% comes with allot of risk

Re:Obama’s Stimulus Plan: When is There ‘Too Much’ Stimulus?

oldtimer — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 00:37:44 GMT

That tingle down your leg

In general I agree with what you are saying but I’m not sure the pull back will be as severe as you indicate. More than a few of these “shovel ready” construction projects will have started pulling down unemployment and pumping up prices in basic materials.

The inflation you speak of is inevitable with government spending surging forcing the dollar to slide further. Many companies are now or will restructure themselves to weather the inflationary wind and the weak will be blown away. Those companies that do not adjust to the higher cost of energy and tight credit may not survive, at least in their current form.

Between OPEC, the administration’s adversarial position with energy companies, additional taxes on energy and the investment class, the unprepared will be driven to the wall.

Many people seem to think banks that took the ‘bailout’ money will survive. I’m not so sure. Once on the dole it is hard to get off. Companies, like people, come to believe they are entitled to it forever and tend not to change their ways. A few unknown banks with sound lending policies and clean books will emerge to take over their weak sisters, at least until they too become overloaded with Ivy league grads that feel they really do have all the answers and there is a free lunch. The government will open a bank to handle toxic loans, and Barney Frank should be made its chief loan officer.

To answer your original question: “When is there too much stimulus?” When you feel that tingle down your leg. That’s Mother Nature telling you’re in la-la land and it’s time to get real.

I don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel but, "Patience and perseverance have a magical effect before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish."

John Quincy Adams

Re:13 Stock Bargains…Without The Risk

Aalan88 — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:41:18 GMT

25%??? You're willing to lose 25% of your investment on each position before triggering the stop? That's not much protection.